EU top jobs: “white smoke” anticipation

Brussels 17.06.2024 Following the European Parliament elections, today the EU leaders will discuss the next institutional cycle. The informal meeting will be the first leaders assembly since the European Parliament election, with ascendence for the centre-right and right-wing parties, but unfortunate for French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The leaders will coordinate positions on the top jobs in the institutions, including the presidents of the European Commission and European Council, and the top EU diplomat. The draft composition is known ahead:

Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen is in prime position to secure a second mandate as head of the European Commission, reassured by the gains for her centre-right European People’s Party.
At present among 27 EU leaders thirteen are from the centre right parties included in to the European People’s party, adding Macron and Scholz support, she would have the qualified majority required to be nominated.

Before the EU defeat of Macron’s Renaissance party, he considered alternatives to von der Leyen, but ahead of the parliamentary elections called on 30 June, and 7 July, he clearly prefers to go with the flow, joining the Council majority, grouped behind the second term.

Former Portugal Prime Minister Socialist António Costa is likely to get a job of the next president of the European Council taking over from Charles Michel, the Liberal.

And a Liberal Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, daughter of former Commissioner Siim Kallas, is aiming to be nominated a High representative for Foreign affairs, and Defense.

The European Council is central in designating the next high-profile EU-level roles, namely:

– electing the President of the European Council
– nominating the President of the European Commission
– appointing the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy

All these procedures are laid out in the Treaty on European Union (TEU), one of the EU’s primary treaties.

Any decision by the European Council needs to reflect the diversity of the EU in terms of geography, country size, gender and political affiliation. In spite of importance of the EU Council, the final word belongs to the European Parliament, which should endorse the candidates by majority vote.

By the end of the meeting the Prime minister of Hungary Viktor Orban posted his opinion on Twitter:

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