A major new survey by the Policy Institute at King’s College London, in partnership with Ipsos MORI and the UK in a Changing Europe, reveals what the public think will happen in the Brexit negotiations, and the impact of leaving the EU on key issues over the following five years:
- 44% of the public expect the UK to leave the EU in March 2019 without a deal in place, 29% expect us to leave with a deal and 7% think we will not leave the EU in March.
- Labour Remain supporters are particularly likely to think we’re heading for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, with 54% seeing this as the most likely outcome, while Conservative Leave supporters are most likely to think we’ll leave with a deal (53%).
- Only 14% of the public expect Brexit to increase their own standard of living in the next five years, with 31% expecting their standard of living to decrease. This is an increase in the proportion of the public expecting their standard of living to decrease, from 25% in June 2016. 41% of Labour supporters and 58% of Lib Dem supporters expect their living standards to decrease.
- 39% of the public expect the UK economic growth rate to decrease as a result of Brexit, which is a balance of very different views between Leave and Remain supporters: 64% of Remain supporters expect Brexit to decrease growth rates, compared with only 17% of Leave supporters.
- People are split on the impact of Brexit on the quality of NHS services, with 34% expecting it to decrease. The proportion of the public with this expectation has doubled since 2016, when only 17% thought Brexit would lead to a decline in the quality of NHS services.
Professor Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute, said: “There is little general optimism about the outcome of the Brexit negotiations and the ongoing impact of leaving the EU, particularly on living standards and economic growth.
“But as with other aspects of our relationship with Europe, our predictions reveal the huge divisions in the country – different groups see the future very differently, with Conservative and Leave supporters more optimistic that Brexit will have little economic impact on the UK, while reducing EU immigration.
“There are, however, some signs of growing unease among the public since we last asked these questions just before the EU Referendum. There has been an increase in the proportion of people expecting their own living standards to decline, and a doubling of the proportion expecting the quality of services from the NHS to decline, now a third of the public.”
British Prime Minister Theresa May said she considers Brexit deal was still possible as she arrived in Brussels Europa building to meet her 27 European Union counterparts, in spite of the talks impasse over how to the Irish border functional arrangements.
At the European Council Article 50 working dinner, EU27 leaders will review the state of the negotiations with the UK. EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said weeks of hard work were needed to solve the problem, promising to approach the talks “calmly and patiently”.
The president of the European Parliament Antonio Tajani said the Article 50 deal is still possible but requires ‘hard work‘. He once again backed the proposal of the MEPs for three year transition period for finding the best solutions for existing issues, namely the Irish border arrangements.
Dutch Prime minister expressed “cautious optimism” concerning possibility to reach a deal.
The EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is open to extending Britain’s departure by another year to win time for an Article 50 deal.
The proposal to extend Brexit talks for one year provoked a whirlwind of criticism among those, who voted to leave.
British Prime Minister Theresa May urged the European Union not to allow a stand-off over the so-called Irish backstop to derail Brexit talks, saying she believed a deal was still achievable in the coming weeks.( Image: illustration.)
Addressing the session of parliament before she leaving for Brussels for the Summit with the EU27 leaders May was upbeat about the chances of a deal, but repeated she would not agree to anything that could split the United Kingdom.
Ahead of the European Union Summit in Brussels (17/10/2018) a British government spokesman indicated progress had been made in some key areas. “However there remain a number of unresolved issues relating to the backstop. The UK is still committed to making progress at the October European Council,” he said.
The EU officials and diplomats said, that there are no plans for further talks before leaders of the other 27 EU member states meet over dinner in Brussels on Wednesday, October 17, to hear EU top negotiator Michel Barmier brief them on the state of play.
Several sources hinted there was little chance the leaders would give Barnier new instructions. The British Prime minister Theresa May will join the leaders on Thursday morning, however she is not expected to break the deadlock she has faced in Salzburg earlier this year.
Leader are expected to confirm whether enough progress had been made for meeting at another summit, planned in one month time for November 17-18, at which both the treaty on an orderly British withdrawal and a version of a document setting out future trade relations could be endorsed.
The Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the ally of Prime Minister Theresa May’s government, said that it wanted a Brexit that worked for the Republic of Ireland too, as its leader Arlene Foster travels to Brussels for talks with EU negotiator Michel Barnier.
The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is the apple of discord in Brexit talks between the UK and the EU, and both sides are trying to work out how to monitor and regulate trade over the border, without creating standard infrastructure.
AMENDED: “There is only one red line… when we are treated differently from the rest of the United Kingdom”, Foster said at press-conference in European Parliament.
“The parliamentary approval process for Brexit is going to be complex and possibly lengthy, a new report by academic think tank The UK in a Changing Europe and the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law finds.The Brexit Endgame comes out on the day marking six months to Brexit. It leaves the politics to one side and looks at the Brexit process as it will play out in the UK Parliament and the EU” says the report of Researchers from The UK in a Changing Europe and the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law.
“It is almost certain the deal will not be ratified until 2019. As Article 50 can be extended, the real deadline is 18 April, when the European Parliament breaks up for elections.
- Parliamentarians do not face a simple deal/no deal choice, the report finds.
- Parliament will vote on the Withdrawal Agreement and the future relationship as one package. It will be presented to Parliament (as a motion) after it has been agreed with the EU
- MPs can make procedural amendments to the motion. Substantive amendments would amount to a rejection.
- If MPs reject the deal, the government can resubmit an amended version for approval.
- Once the Brexit motion is passed, Parliament then has to approve a bill turning the Withdrawal Agreement into UK law, giving MPs a second opportunity to reject the deal. Without this bill, the deal will not come into force in the UK or EU.
- If a deal can’t be reached or it can’t get through Parliament, there are three ways to trigger a general election:
- if a two-thirds majority of MPs support one;
- if the government loses a confidence motion and can’t regain the support of the Commons within two weeks;
- by overturning the FTPA.
- Once a deal is reached, the European Commission will recommend it to the European Council which will then pass it to the European Parliament
- The European Parliament will wait for the UK Parliament to pass the deal
- If this happens, the deal will go to the EP’s Constitutional Affairs Committee before being voted on by a plenary session of MEPs
- A simple majority of those present on the day is needed for it to pass
- Once that happens, the European Council will then vote. The deal will need the support of at least 20 member states representing at least two-thirds of the EU population.
Researchers from The UK in a Changing Europe and the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law wrote two versions of the report – A detailed guide to the parliamentary process of withdrawal from the EU and a short guide.
Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe, said: “Given that most attention has been focussed on Brussels, we have tended to overlook the complex processes that await any Brexit deal that is agreed. “These reports lay out in painstaking and meticulous detail what those processes consist of, and provide a salutary warning that, even should a deal be struck with the EU, the Brexit process will still have a long way to run.”