Brussels 12.08.2024 The Kremlin decided to declare a counterterrorism operation avoiding a state of war or martial law to downplay the scale of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast to prevent domestic consequences of the failure. The move demonstrating that the Kremlin is reluctant to take relevant measures to respond to the Ukraine successful operation on Russian soil.

Russian language outlet Verstka (“Вёрстка”) reported on August 8 that a source close to the Russian Federation Council’s defense committee passed a word that the President’s Administration recommended that Russian deputies and senators avoid commenting on the events in Kursk Oblast “until further notice” or discuss it as briefly as possible and refer only to official statements.

Russian military bloggers have been suggesting that the Kremlin uses this opportunity to admit the reality, and formally declare war against Ukraine and criticized the Kremlin for failing to declare martial law instead of the counterterrorism operation.

The declaration of martial law notably would have allowed Russian authorities to draconian measures against civil society, such as prohibiting rallies and demonstrations, enacting curfews, and organizing the production of defense articles for the military.

President Putin has refrained from officially declaring a state of war, has repeatedly demonstrated his unwillingness to transfer Russian society fully to a war-time mode, and has avoided declaring general mobilization as part of wider efforts to prevent domestic discontent that could put into question the stability of Putin’s regime.

Previously President Putin said on many occasions that the 2022 Istanbul agreements remain “on the table” and can serve as a foundation for peace negotiations with Ukraine.

Speaking month earlier at Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaders in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana, Putin thanked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine.

“The Istanbul agreements, I thank for this, the president of the Turkish Republic, Mr. Erdogan, who participated in this work as a mediator. These agreements have not been dismissed, they were approved by the head of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, which means, apparently, they were satisfactory enough for Ukraine. These agreements, the Istanbul agreements, remain on the table and can serve as the foundation for continuing these negotiations,” he said.

Russia has never refused and is now ready to continue peace talks, Putin stressed. However the Ukrainian authorities assessed the agreement as “stillbirth”.