Vilnius 07/11/2023 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to send Sweden’s application for NATO membership to parliament for a vote as soon as possible, Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on July 10.

“I am pleased to announce that President Erdogan has agreed to send the protocol on Sweden’s membership to the Turkish Grand National Assembly as soon as possible, and agreed to work closely with the assembly to ensure the ratification of the protocol,” Stoltenberg said at a press conference in Vilnius following talks with Erdogan and Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson.

“I don’t have exact dates (…) but the President said that they would do it as soon as possible,” Stoltenberg explained.

The senior NATO official added that the joint statement by Turkey, Sweden and NATO outlines how the points of the tripartite memorandum between Turkey, Sweden and Finland, signed at the NATO summit in Madrid in 2022, will be followed.

“This statement is a confirmation of the importance of the full implementation of the provisions on which we agreed in the field of combating terrorism, as well as in the field of lifting restrictions on the export of weapons and on other points in this statement agreed today,” Stoltenberg said.

Last summer, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden abandoned their longstanding non-alignment stance and announced their intention to join the Alliance. The two countries of the European Union have a long history of close cooperation with NATO, and both are strong, stable democracies, which is usually the ideal formula for unfettered membership.

Erdogan considered the situation in other aspects. The Turkish leader opposed their intentions due to what he saw in the country’s support for Kurdish groups, which he considers terrorist organizations, and also because of the arms embargo on Turkey. At last year’s NATO summit in Madrid, Turkey, Finland and Sweden signed a memorandum of understanding that outlined a roadmap to overcome obstacles.

But it didn’t last long. Although the Turkish leader eventually allowed Finland to join in April of this year, he continued to block Sweden’s path, saying it was still not principled enough towards terrorists.

The hope was that Erdogan, who had just won a major re-election victory this May, could soften his stance on Sweden by the time that summit took place. But just because Erdogan won another term doesn’t mean he’ll be a different leader. Of course, he is looking for a renewal of relations with the West, but on his own terms. This meant that few Turkish observers thought that he would rush to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership after the election, at least without receiving any bonuses in return.

These bonuses can be F-16 fighters. The Biden administration has made it clear that it will be happy to let Turkey buy the upgraded equipment, and has not even been wary of using it as leverage in its efforts to bring Sweden into NATO. “I congratulated Erdogan. He still wants to work on something on the F-16. I told him that we want to make a deal with Sweden, so let’s do it,” Biden said after Erdogan’s election victory in May.

However, everything is not so linear. Congress ultimately has a say in arms transfers, and it continues to object to the F-16 deal due to the standoff between Sweden and NATO, as well as other issues such as anti-democratic tendencies in Turkey and Syria-related issues. .

Despite Erdogan’s sweeping gesture on the eve of the NATO Summit, there is no certainty that ratification by the Turkish parliament will be appointed quickly, and the prospect of ratification itself without real bonuses for Turkey itself is even more vague.
Sweden has made concessions, including strengthening its anti-terrorism laws and agreeing to the extradition of some individuals. Simultaneously, Sweden is also trying to take a delicate line, as both its government and its citizens insist they will not compromise on the rule of law to appease Turkey.

Erdogan, who has weakened these institutions and principles in Turkey, apparently does not see the point of view of Sweden’s democratic institutions, and he and his officials continue to insist that they want more action against terrorists. “The essence of the Alliance is an institution of mutual trust and solidarity. Without this, it is pointless to talk about other subjects,” Erdogan said in a speech on Friday, according to Al-Monitor.

As Erdogan consolidated his one-man rule, destroyed the rule of law and democratic institutions, imprisoned and cracked down on civil society and journalists, the EU said Turkey was moving further and further away from the EU and suspended negotiations indefinitely.