Brussels 19.07.2023 The West will focus at search for an alternative to the now-defunct Black Sea grain deal at a meeting of European Union foreign ministers on July 20, an EU official said. Kiev is also looking for ways to export grain after the Black Sea Grain Initiative came to a halt upon Russia’s withdrawal. Several options are under consideration, including a continuation of maritime exports regardless of Russia’s position and grain transportation along the Danube River. Either option would entail economic or security costs, Russian tabloid Izvestia reports.

“Turkey is the only country other than Russia with the capability to ensure safe passage of vessels to the northwestern part of the Black Sea region. Turkey would not violate the Montreux Convention. The question is how we will react to that,” political scientist Andrey Suzdaltsev noted. He believes that the Russian Armed Forces could wipe out the terminals in Odessa Region ports that were used in grain deal operations.

Transit through Danube ports may be a solution for the Ukrainian authorities. However, Ukrainian Grain Association President Nikolay Gorbachev admits that grain exports will fall, while transportation costs will be higher. The Danube is a rather shallow river and only low-tonnage cargo vessels are capable of navigating it, which will in turn increase export costs, Suzdaltsev has underlined.

However the end of the grain deal plays into the West’s hands, said Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. “The grain deal gave the Ukrainian leadership and the West time to develop arrangements for ensuring land-based exports of Ukrainian grain to the West. The grain deal was an opportunity to prepare for rolling out a new logistics model that would benefit Western countries,” Ofitserov-Belsky maintained.

However, the current situation may spark future tensions in Europe. The grain exported from Ukraine by sea under the deal had been delivered to southern European countries, where it was then stored before being forwarded to final destination countries. Now, the only remaining route runs through Eastern Europe, where a rise in Ukrainian agricultural imports may once again spark discontent among local farmers.