In case of declaration of independence of Catalonia Madrid will order an exodus of all enterprises to doom the rebellious region to misery. The war of words between Madrid and Barcelona intensified as a deadline of activation of Article 155, taking Catalonia under direct control of Madrid, looms. The Sénate has to vote of the proposal of Mariano Rajoy government on Friday 27, ending almost a month of stand off between central government and freedom aspiring region.
What Madrid realises, but does not articulate, is that Catalonia break away causes loss of the richest region of Spain with 266 billion euros of economic output, and subsequently 20% countries of GDP. The threat of re-localisation of enterprises and replacement of specialists can not be done overnight, so far only head offices were moved under pressure of Madrid, but production at enterprises continued uninterrupted. Spain will definitely suffer from any drastic moves in economy as much as the region it is vowing to punish, stripping from freedoms, and taking under direct control.
In case of Catalonia decides to pursue the independent future, the role of third countries as lenders outside the EU will become crucial, especially EFTA members, who might find in Catalans dynamic and inspiring partners. The loud declarations of the EU institution in Brussels warning that no country in Europe will recognise Catalonia, were premature. None of European parliaments could react upon the issue as long as the suspension of Catalan independence lasts.